Adaptation resources for decision-makers

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VCCCAR research: informing policy

Victoria’s liveability is defined by the health and beauty of its natural environment, the quality of infrastructure, the strength of the economy and the vibrancy of its communities. Changes in climate may put each of these assets under pressure.

The Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR) was established in 2009 to conduct applied research to improve decision making capacity in government on Victorian-related climate impacts and adaptation options. The investment of $5M in this research and engagement program has brought together research teams from five Victorian universities to work with staff from eight Victorian government departments, local government, industry and the community to improve the knowledge base and capacity to adapt to climate change.

In just four years VCCCAR partners have developed a best practice model for Australia that builds on Victoria’s research strengths in the tertiary education sector to create major new capacity to assist government decision making. In partnerships with State and local governments, the VCCCAR research program has demonstrated considerable impact in informing policy and practice. It has also generated published outputs and enabled the development of additional research capacity, collaboration and funding across the universities’ partners.

The Victorian Climate Change Adaptation Plan

Managing risks and adapting to climate change needs to include all levels of government and business, communities and individuals. Victoria’s first Adaptation Plan was released in March 2013. It set out the following elements: policy principles, government commitments and strategies for adaptation planning.

Policy principles in the Plan

  1. Informed decision making that is integrated across government.
  2. A risk-based approach, focused on high impact risks and robust options that deliver benefits at least cost to the community under a range of future climate change scenarios.
  3. Complementarity with other levels of government to ensure that respective roles of different levels of government are clearly defined and responses delivered at the most effective level.
  4. Equitable approaches that address the differing capacities across communities and regions to adapt.

Government commitments in the Plan

  • Establish a whole-of-government committee to: coordinate ongoing delivery and development of research and strategic priorities; facilitate information exchange within Government on agency responses to climate risks; report to Government on progress in ‘mainstreaming’ adaptation planning; identify emerging climate-related inter-agency and statewide risks and opportunities; and to review progress and evaluate the effectiveness of existing adaptation responses and requirements for modified or additional measures.
  • Provide a forum of public sector asset managers to share best practice around climate related risk identification and management, and to facilitate information sharing and early identification of interagency and state-wide climate related risks.
  • Develop a research and information network across Government to strengthen engagement between research and policy making on whole of government priorities and to develop coordinated approaches for providing information to Victorian councils and the Victorian community, to support their adaptation planning and risk management.

Strategies for adaptation planning

Strategies are identified in the Adaptation Plan for the following themes: (1) managing risks to public assets and services, (2) managing risks to Victoria’s natural assets including natural resource-based industries, (3) building disaster resilience and integrated emergency management, (4) improving access to research and information for decision making, (5) supporting private sector adaptation and (6) partnering with local government and communities. These strategies are inter-related and effective adaptation needs to consider the linkages between them.

VCCCAR's contribution to Victorian Government adaptation strategies

VCCCAR has commissioned 12 research projects and conducted 13 think tanks. Outputs from research projects are relevant to a number of adaptation strategies. The strategies and relevant research are summarised in the following sections.

1.     Managing risks to public assets and services

The Victorian Government provides essential services and manages a $170 billion portfolio of assets, including government-owned buildings and infrastructure. All government agencies apply a common Risk Management Framework. This brings together information on governance policies, accountabilities and roles and responsibilities and is used to identify and manage climate-related risks to public assets and services.

Government agencies working in health, human services, education, transport, energy and water sectors must consider both the direct climate risks and any compounding effects. Issues to be considered in planning for continued management of a range of government services and assets include:

  • what impact climate risks will have on demand for services (e.g. emergency management services, health services) and the implications for service planning; and
  • what changes may be required to the design or management of buildings and infrastructure (e.g. public housing, roads and bridges).

Critical infrastructure with a long life often involves major investment decisions and, in some cases, it is sited or designed to operate within particular climate conditions (e.g. water supply, bridges). In addition to climate, other factors to consider include population trends, patterns of urban development and economic structure. This requires decision-makers to actively engage with a range of change possibilities and consider a wide range of potential futures.

Relevant VCCCAR research

VCCCAR research outputs to assist decisions on the management of assets and services include:

  • guidance material to assist stakeholders develop a clearer collective understanding of climate futures
  • new types of economic analysis to improve investment decisions in capital projects that are potentially impacted by climate change
  • guidance material for improved regional planning under climate change
  • governance approaches to risk management under climate change and increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events.

Research Projects

Building common understanding of scenario based strategies to inform climate change adaptation

  • This project found that scenario-based approaches are a valuable tool for addressing climate change adaptation objectives in Victoria, supporting a shift from ‘enhanced prediction’ to ‘robust decision making’ under uncertainty to engage with potential futures beyond the status quo.
  • To maximise benefits of this approach, there needs to be a clear linkage between scenario outcomes and specific policy and program decisions. Effective adoption requires an organisational culture that is ready to use the outcomes of scenario analysis.

Enhancing water infrastructure provision with climate change uncertainty

  • This project found that there can be a case for deferring a project even if the current expected benefits from the project are positive because there is an options value placed on improved information in the future.
  • If this value is ignored, implementing standard cost-benefit approaches can lead to overinvestment in infrastructure built before it is required.
  • Auxiliary policies that can ‘reduce the costs of waiting’ include pricing water higher when water storages are low to reduce water demand and lengthen availability of scarce water resources; preplanning large investment projects to reduce implementation time and costs when the future investment decision is made; and modular design options to allow smaller initial infrastructure investments to be scaled up as the future situation becomes clear.

Decision taking under uncertainty in regional planning

  • Using the Gippsland regional planning process this project is analysing how the knowledge of climate change, its impacts and adaptation options is negotiated and used in decision-making. The project aims to improve the process of regional planning, where the needs of a variety of often conflicting interests must be considered, and will develop guidelines to integrate future climate risks.

Governance models for adaptation and natural disaster risk management: legal, regulatory, institutional and financial assessment

  • This project describes the legal and institutional arrangements in place for managing risks to critical infrastructure, using a case study of Victoria's ports. The research team is working closely with relevant representatives from the Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure. By clarifying the relationship between different agencies and actors in the context of Victoria’s seaports, as well as the regulatory and private law arrangements that direct and guide their behaviour, this project highlights some of the climate risk management issues for public and critical infrastructure.
  • The project also undertakes comparative analysis of the governance models in place for climate risk management at ports in the United Kingdom.

Think tank reports

2.     Managing risks to Victoria’s natural assets including natural resource-based industries

This policy priority includes addressing climate risks to biodiversity, soils, waterways and land, coastal and marine ecosystems. Through Environmental Partnerships, the government is aiming to improve the environmental condition of Victoria’s waterways and achieve integrated, multiple outcomes for land, water and biodiversity. A key delivery mechanism is the Regional Catchment Strategies developed by the ten catchment management authorities across Victoria.

Central to thinking about the changing landscape in response climate change is the need to increase resilience and connectivity across the landscape by supporting community-driven landscape restoration, increasing connectivity and linking areas of ecological value across all land tenures, better understanding of the links between biodiversity and landscape resilience and improved approaches to managing threatened species.

Relevant VCCCAR research

VCCCAR research is informing government policy in the management of the natural resource base.  Outputs include:

  • Guidance on approaches to Integrated Landscape Management under climate change through greater collaboration, engagement and information sharing between stakeholders
  • Improved capability and capacity building in regional adaptation planning and management
  • Demonstration of the opportunity for improved land management through the incorporation of comprehensive community mapping and the protection and appropriate deployment of indigenous knowledge
  • Improved knowledge of the carbon stocks and  management opportunities in the landscape

Research Projects

Policies and governance to support integrated landscape management (ILM) in a changing environment

  • This project found that collaboration through ILM can play a key role in helping land managers adapt to climate change in Victoria. It requires clear goals and a learning program based on a commitment to collective review outcomes and revisit management decisions. Without these, land management becomes driven by numerous decisions of individuals or agencies with potential suboptimal outcomes for both landscapes and the communities that depend on them.
  • Establishing collective goals across different types of land managers is a major challenge. It requires ongoing dialogue to align efforts and priorities of diverse actors.
  • It is best achieved through building on existing collaborations and networks, creating informal links across governance levels and using existing policies and strategies where possible. This will require: committed leadership at local, regional and state levels; analysis of power relations; improved information sharing; more integrated and coordinated decision making across government sectors; and increased resources for communication and engagement.

Implementing tools to increase adaptive capacity in the community and natural resource management sectors

  • This project is exploring the ways that CMAs might consider adaptation. Findings os far indicate that CMAs could benefit by taking a strong adaptation focus to their activities, providing regional leadership and information and supporting regional adaptation facilitators. While some CMAs are advanced with adaptation planning, others do not have the capacity to engage in adaptation. A more networked approach towards organisational learning and development for adaptation across the CMA sector could enhance NRM outcomes in the light of climate change impacts.

Learning from Indigenous and traditional community knowledge

  • This project found that comprehensive community mapping can enhance and protect indigenous knowledge. Factors to be considered include: points of contention and common ground among key actors, appraisal of past management efforts, analysis of key elements of future co-management plans, and alternatives to proprietarian intellectual property protections for traditional knowledge.

Comprehensive carbon assessment project (CCAP)

  • This project has provided improved knowledge and understanding the carbon carrying capacity and implications of management on carbon stocks in Victorian ecosystems as a basis for better managing carbon stocks in a changing climate.

Think tank reports

3.     Building disaster resilience and integrated emergency management

Policy objectives in the Plan affirm the importance of supporting the community to become more resilient and building the capability of the emergency management sector and establishing governance structures to improve accountability and efficiency and drive reforms to emergency management arrangements.

Relevant VCCCAR research

VCCCAR research is supporting disaster resilience and emergency management through:

  • Analysis of the legal instruments and tools that can be used to reduce exposure and vulnerability to extreme events in Victoria’s planning system and
  • Providing guidance on role of scenario planning in assisting disaster response organisations prepare and practice responses and test systems under simulated environments.

Research Projects

Governance models for adaptation and natural disaster risk management: legal, regulatory, institutional and financial assessment

  • This project analyses and provides guidance on the legal instruments and tools that can be used to reduce exposure and vulnerability to extreme events in Victoria’s planning system. It does this in recognition that such efforts will be critical to building Victorians’ disaster resilience.
  • The project builds on academic research and the National Review of Land Use Planning and Building Codes to produce a guide on the different functions these instruments can perform, what form they can take and matters policy-makers could consider when deciding whether and which legal tool to adopt.

Building common understanding of scenario based strategies to inform climate change adaptation

  • This project found that scenario-based approaches are a valuable tool for planning for disaster management and response. Scenarios can help disaster response organisations prepare and practice responses and test systems under simulated environments. It provides space for agencies to ‘think about the unthinkable’. This type of planning can support a shift from ‘enhanced prediction’ to ‘robust decision making’ under uncertainty to engage with potential futures beyond the status quo.

Think tank reports

4.     Improving access to research and information for decision making

The Plan identifies that research and information are essential for effective climate change adaptation. Individuals, businesses, government and community organisations require robust, reliable and accessible climate science and risk information to provide a better understanding of potential risks and to develop appropriate responses. In particular, the Government is committed to ensuring that research is responsive and action-oriented and facilitates knowledge sharing between researchers, government, community and business stakeholders.

The government has supported VCCCAR as a multi-disciplinary research program addressing climate adaptation priorities identified by the Victorian Government. This approach provides advice to deal with strategic gaps in adaptation knowledge and potential interactions or trade-offs between sectors, while building on and complementing the growing body of adaptation research. VCCCAR links the Government with five partner Victorian universities and provides an important ongoing mechanism for collaborative multi-disciplinary research and knowledge transfer for decision makers in government, the community and the private sector.

The Plan aims to support coordination and collaboration on research efforts, across the three levels of government, with the research sector and within the Victorian Government, to avoid duplication of effort, improve the consistency, quality and dissemination of research and ensure it meets user needs.

The Victorian Government’s objectives in research are to:

  1. Provide ‘public good’ information on climate risk and responses to allow all Victorians to decide on the best way to build their climate resilience (much of this research is too costly for individual councils, businesses and communities to generate themselves); and
  2. Inform government planning and decision-making on responsibilities for disaster resilience and risk management for service delivery and asset maintenance and planning.

Relevant VCCCAR research

The establishment of VCCCAR and Centre activities are generally an example of the support being provided for this strategy.

The Centre has also played a key role in facilitating engagement and communication with local governments through sponsoring the ‘Council Connections’ discussions. These have stimulated thinking in local government about the risks to local government assets and services and consideration of adaptation options.

Research projects have been designed to support a reflective, ‘double-loop’ learning model and to explore ways in which knowledge to support adaptation can be co-produced between researchers and practitioners.

The visiting fellow program has provided an avenue for knowledgeable researchers from beyond Australia to spend time in Victoria working on local challenges such as statutory planning processes, managing flood risks, creating learning organisations and better use of climate system knowledge for adaptation.

Research Projects

Examining and improving co-production of knowledge between research and policy: learning from VCCCAR

  • The co-production of knowledge to influence policy in climate change adaptation requires that attention is given to the environment and the processes as well as the outputs. This project is examining and testing approaches to engagement between researchers and policy makers that facilitates cogeneration of knowledge. Using action research, the project will analyse experiences from recent adaptation research projects to test different models in the adaptation policy context.

Think tank reports and other activities

5.     Supporting private sector adaptation

The Government’s key priority is to further develop policy settings that support appropriate risk allocation and promote business innovation, including providing access to information to assist the private sector to manage its risks. This includes removing barriers to effective adaptation and clarifying insurance arrangements for climate-related risks.

Relevant VCCCAR research

Research outputs to support improved decision making in this strategy have improved understanding of:

  • the financial impacts of climate change and approaches to assessing costs of adaptation
  • the engineering, social and regulatory factors involved with distributed energy and water generation systems and their potential contribution to resilient housing developments
  • the design and location of street trees, parks, green roofs and walls to reduce urban heat and the its impacts on human health and liveability
  • regulatory and policy arrangements to reduce vulnerability and the role of measures such as insurance to support risk management, resilience and recovery in the private sector.

Research projects

Framing multi-level and multi-actor adaptation responses in the Victorian context

  • Understanding financial impacts of climate related events and the costs of adaptation options is a key element in deciding where best to invest to avoid the worst climate impacts.
  • This project produced some of the first estimates of the costs to industry and the community of climate events such as bushfire, indicating that, with no adaptive change, by 2050 increases in the costs of bushfire to the Victorian agricultural industry due to climate change will be additional $1.4 billion in today’s dollars (or $46.6 million per annum by 2050). The cost will be an additional $2.8 billion in today’s dollars (or $93.4 million per annum by 2050) to the Victorian timber industry.
  • The project also analysed approaches to assessing financial impacts and the costs of adaptation options, concluding that these assessments are not straightforward and further research is required to develop an appropriate framework.

Resilient urban systems: a socio-technical study of comunity scale climate change adaptation initiatives

  • This project investigated the contribution of distributed systems for energy and water generation to resilience in a changing climate. It found that these systems have the potential to increase community resilience through improving capacity to avoid, absorb and adjust to climate-related impacts. However, types of distributed water reuse and recycling systems are still ultimately reliant on mains energy and water networks, and are therefore at risk from impacts on centralised infrastructure.
  • To foster community resilience, companies designing and planning infrastructure in urban development need to give specific attention to social and institutional arrangements. While, Victoria’s regulatory arrangements pose few direct barriers to community-scale systems, some aspects can restrict innovation that could increase infrastructure resilience, for example regulations that limit connecting community-scale energy systems to the grid.

Responding to the urban heat island: optimising the implementation of green infrastructure

  • ‘Green infrastructure’ (street trees, parks, green roofs and walls and more permeable urban land surfaces) has significant potential to increase urban resilience by keeping cities cooler in a warmer climate and limiting impacts of flash flooding.  Irrigating green infrastructure with safe and sustainable water sources (storm water, recycled water) will further improve vegetation health and cooling effectiveness.
  • The study showed the important role of privately-owned green infrastructure, open space and roof tops in creating any net reduction in urban heat across Melbourne, with current public green infrastructure investments being offset by private sector reductions in some areas.

Governance models for adaptation and natural disaster risk management: legal, regulatory, insitituional and financial assessment

  • In addition to identifying legal and policy instruments to reduce vulnerability and exposure to extreme weather and climate events, this project also highlights governance issues related to the provision of information to the private sector – roles and responsibilities for collection, communication, access, maintenance; legal issues around the limitations of technology and quality of information; and legal models for, and barriers to, providing information.
  • This project is analysing policy settings for use in hybrid, public-private governance contexts through the he interaction of public, private and quasi-private actors in the operation of ports and for the uptake of insurance.

 Decision taking under uncertainty

  • Decision making is not purely an analytical process and there are a range of psychological and social factors that are important in planning for the future. This project is investigating the effect of uncertainty in long-term planning decisions from a sociological perspective. The project is using the Gippsland regional planning processes to analyse how the knowledge of climate change, its impacts and adaptation options is negotiated and used in decision-making.
  • The project aims to improve the process of regional planning, where the needs of a variety of often conflicting interests must be considered and will develop guidelines for improved regional planning that integrates future climate risks.

Think tank reports

6.     Partnering with local government and communities

The recent experience of drought, floods and bushfires has underlined the risks for regional communities and local governments arising from climate-related events. A key role for government is managing the distributional impacts of these events for particular regions, communities and groups. This involves specific policy responses to address equity concerns.

For example, the current process for developing Regional Growth Plans involves partnerships between the Victorian Government and local government to set out the broad direction for land use and development across regional Victoria. An understanding of natural hazards and opportunities is fundamental to this work, which includes planning for existing and future settlements to be safer from bushfire, floods and sea level rise. Taking a 30-year vision, the plans are intended to be reviewed every 3–5 years, providing the opportunity to make adjustments as new information becomes available, including regionally-specific climate change data and modelling.

The policy goal is to engage with Victorian local governments to develop a Memorandum of Understanding with the Victorian local government sector, outlining the respective and shared climate change adaptation roles and responsibilities, by the end of 2014. This will include ongoing engagement with Victorian councils and their communities.

Relevant VCCCAR research

VCCCAR research in this area has been extensive and Centre researchers have actively engaged with local government partners across Victoria.  Some key aspects of the research include:

  • Analysis of the varying knowledge, experience and understanding of climate change in different types of communities.
  • Development of guides and tools for local government and community service providors and testing of these tools in action research
  • Guidance on planning and policy arrangements to local and state governments to facilitate increased green infrastructure in public and private realms to reduce urban heating and distributed systems for energy and water generation to increase community resilience and improve liveability.
  • New approaches to facilitate stronger community engagement in planning and the development of shared solutions for resilient communities.

Research Projects

Framing multi-level and multi-actor adaptation responses in the Victorian context

  • This project worked extensively with local and state government staff to explore the different ways in which people with varying knowledge, experiences and personal backgrounds ‘made sense’ of adapting to climate change, with the aim of developing an improved basis for a decision-making for adaptation policy and practice by local and regional authorities in Victoria.
  • The products included a guide on Local Adaptation Planning containing a suite of methods to assess and respond to existing and potential climate change impacts on Victoria. It provides decision makers with guidance for effectively considering climate change impacts in policy development and delivery.
  • The project produced the Climate Change Adaptation Navigator, a web-based application to support local government adaptation planning that has been developed to ‘proof of concept’ stage. Built through active collaboration with three Victorian local governments and the UK’s Climate Impacts Program, the Navigator provides an innovative framework for adaptation planning that has been well-received in the policy and practice community in local government in Victoria, interstate and internationally.

Responding to the urban heat island: optimising the implementation of green infrastructure

  • This collaborative study with local governments investigated approaches to assessing urban heat at different scales and the effectiveness of green infrastructure for cooling urban landscapes. Through analysis of policy, cost and management issues a systematic guide for urban environment managers was developed to optimise the selection and implementation of green infrastructure.
  • Costs and benefits of implementing green infrastructure are un-evenly distributed across government departments, sectors and the community depending upon the form and location of green infrastructure being used. The study highlights some different approaches for co-ordinating and targeting these co-benefits.

Implementing tools to increase adaptive capacity in the community and natural resource management sectors

  • This project is investigating the needs, barriers, issues and opportunities for applying adaptation tools in agencies responsible for delivering services to the Victorian community, such as community service organisations (CSOs), primary health care partnerships (PCPs) and catchment management authorities (CMAs).
  • Through collaborative analysis and testing, the project will recommend how adaptation tools (including those developed in other VCCCAR projects) can be used effectively for responding to the needs of these different organisations and support them in making the case for the resources required to avoid or manage the risks of climate-related events.

Resilient urban systems: a socio-technical study of community scale climate change adaptation initiatives

  • This project found that, to foster community resilience, designing and planning of infrastructure in urban developments need to give specific attention to social and institutional arrangements.
  • While Victoria’s regulatory arrangements pose few direct barriers to community-scale systems, some aspects can restrict innovation that could increase infrastructure resilience, for example regulations that limit connecting community-scale energy systems to the grid.

Design-led decision support for regional climate change

  • A key challenge in planning for potentially very different future climate conditions is being able to envisage and consider this range of futures. Traditional planning approaches often start from pre-existing planning principles or risk management positions and do not allow alternative urban design arrangements to develop across multiple stakeholder groups.
  • This project used collective design processes based on design methods to develop future visions of more resilient communities in different regional settings. Using design ‘charrettes’, community participants considered the question: “What might a resilient future look like?” instead of the more commonly asked question “How do we become resistant and protect ourselves against the impacts of climate change”. The result provided planning and design options that would not have come to light through standard planning processes.
  • Key considerations in implementing this approach include synchronising activity with existing planning processes, clear commitment on time involvement and expectations from local government, ensuring broad engagement of the ‘right’ mix of stakeholders and relevant state government departments and agencies, incorporating local understanding and knowledge and ensuring the process is sufficiently resourced, in particular in communicating the outcomes.

Decision taking under uncertainty

  • This project is investigating the effect of uncertainty in long-term planning decisions from a sociological perspective. The project is using the Gippsland regional planning processes to analyse how the knowledge of climate change, its impacts and adaptation options is negotiated and used in decision-making.
  • The project aims to improve the process of regional planning, where the needs of a variety of often conflicting interests must be considered and will develop guidelines for improved regional planning that integrates future climate risks.

Think tank reports